The government's consultation on valuation rates closed on 21 October 2026, and that single technical document now holds more sway over your lease extension bill than almost anything else in Westminster. For leaseholders across W2, W8, W10 and W11, this is not abstract policy. It is pounds and pence on a premium calculation that could change substantially depending on numbers nobody has yet confirmed.
Leasehold reform Notting Hill October 2026 has become the defining theme for flat owners this autumn, as three separate strands, a rates consultation, a promised bill, and a push to cap ground rents, collide within weeks of each other. None of them are finished business. All of them affect decisions leaseholders are making right now about whether to extend their lease.
This article sets out what has actually happened, what remains proposed, and what Notting Hill flat owners should do while the picture is still unclear.
Key Takeaways
- The consultation on deferment and capitalisation rates under the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Act 2024 closed on 21 October 2026, but outcomes are not yet known.
- The Prime Minister has promised a leasehold reform bill before Christmas 2026, following the draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill published in January 2026.
- A Select Committee has urged a 20-year ground rent sunset and a 2027 ground rent cap, but neither is law.
- Marriage value still applies to leases under 80 years today, nothing has changed on that front yet.
- Commonhold conversion, even if legislated in 2027, is unlikely to produce sold flats before 2029 or 2030.
What Is Actually Law Right Now
It is easy to assume reform has already arrived. It has not, except in two respects.
Under the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Act 2024 (LAFRA):
- The two-year ownership rule was abolished on 31 January 2025. Leaseholders can now extend or enfranchise from day one of ownership, rather than waiting two years.
- Right to Manage changes took effect on 3 March 2025, making it easier for leaseholders to take over management of their buildings.
Everything else, the new valuation method, the abolition of marriage value, service charge transparency rules, and the ground rent regime, remains outstanding. These provisions depend on secondary legislation, including the very valuation rates consultation that closed this month.
The Valuation Rates Consultation: Why It Matters So Much
The consultation addressed deferment and capitalisation rates, the technical inputs surveyors use to calculate lease extension and enfranchisement premiums. These rates are not footnotes. They are central to how much a leaseholder pays.
A higher deferment rate generally reduces the premium payable. A lower rate increases it. Government has discretion here, and the final prescribed rates could materially shift costs for thousands of Notting Hill leaseholders with short leases.
Bishop & Sewell's 19 October 2026 update notes the prescribed rates will largely determine premiums.
Until rates are confirmed, nobody, including RICS valuers, can say with certainty whether a lease extension under the new regime will be cheaper or more expensive than one calculated today.
A Bill Before Christmas: What Was Promised
At the Labour Party Conference, the Prime Minister stated that a leasehold reform bill would be introduced before Christmas 2026. This followed the King's Speech commitment to leasehold legislation in the 2026-27 session, and builds on the draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill published on 27 January 2026.
The Housing, Communities and Local Government Select Committee scrutinised the draft bill in March 2026 and reported on 27 May 2026. Its recommendations included:
| Committee Recommendation | Government Position (as of October 2026) |
|---|---|
| 20-year ground rent sunset (not 40 years) | Not yet confirmed |
| Ground rent cap introduced in 2027 | Urged in letter dated 1 October 2026; not legislated |
On 1 October 2026, committee chair Abena Oppong-Asare MP wrote directly to the government pressing for a ground rent cap to be introduced in 2027. This is a political push, not a legal change.
The Ground Rent Cap and Fee Reforms Still Pending
Separately, on 29 September 2026, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) announced plans to give the Secretary of State powers to cap administration fees and estate charges attached to permissions under leases. A consultation on this is expected but has not yet opened.
For Notting Hill owners in converted period properties, where estate charges and permission fees can be a significant annual cost, this is worth watching closely, but it is a proposal, not a rule.
Why Notting Hill Leaseholders Face a Genuine Dilemma
For flats in Notting Hill, Holland Park and Bayswater with leases approaching 80 years, timing has rarely mattered more.
Marriage value currently applies to any lease extension or enfranchisement claim where the unexpired term is below 80 years. This is a substantial additional cost layered onto the premium, representing a share of the value "unlocked" by extending the lease. LAFRA promises to abolish marriage value, but only once the valuation rates and supporting secondary legislation are in force, which has not happened.
This creates two risks:
- Waiting too long and crossing the 80-year threshold under current law, which triggers marriage value immediately.
- Waiting for reform that may arrive later than expected, with rates that could be less favourable than hoped.
Housing minister Matthew Pennycook has acknowledged that London's development slowdown is likely to continue until leasehold reforms are complete, a signal that uncertainty itself is affecting the market, not just the eventual rules.
The Wider Market Backdrop
Context matters here. LonRes data shows prime London prices down 7.1% in the year to September 2026, with sales down 16.8%. ONS figures confirm falling London flat prices more broadly. Zoopla data shows house prices rising roughly 43% over the past decade while flats rose only around 10%, a gap many attribute partly to leasehold uncertainty weighing on flat values.
If commonhold legislation is enacted in 2027, industry estimates suggest the first commonhold flats would not actually be sold until two to three years later, realistically 2029 or 2030. This is not a quick fix.
What a RICS Valuation Now Gives You
Given this uncertainty, a professional RICS lease extension valuation today serves a clear purpose: it establishes a benchmark figure under current law.
This benchmark lets a leaseholder:
- Know the exact cost of extending now, including marriage value where applicable
- Compare that cost against any future premium once prescribed rates are known
- Make an informed decision rather than guessing based on media headlines
- Negotiate confidently with a freeholder using a figure grounded in RICS methodology
A valuation does not commit anyone to proceeding. It simply replaces speculation with a defensible number.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has marriage value been abolished yet?
No. Marriage value still applies to leases under 80 years under current law. Its abolition depends on secondary legislation not yet in force.
When will the leasehold reform bill become law?
A bill was promised before Christmas 2026, but introduction to Parliament is not the same as Royal Assent. Enactment is unlikely before 2027.
Will ground rents be capped soon?
Not yet. A cap has been urged by the Select Committee chair for 2027, but this remains a recommendation, not legislation.
Should I extend my lease now or wait for reform?
It depends on your lease length and risk tolerance. A current valuation gives you a clear comparison point against future rules.
What changed under LAFRA already?
The two-year ownership rule was removed in January 2025, and Right to Manage changes took effect in March 2025. Most other provisions remain pending.
Conclusion and Next Steps
Leasehold reform Notting Hill October 2026 is a story of momentum without resolution. A consultation has closed, a bill has been promised, and a ground rent cap has been urged, but none of this has altered the valuation of a single lease yet. For owners with leases drifting toward or below 80 years, delay carries real financial risk under rules that remain firmly in place today.
The sensible next step is straightforward: commission a RICS chartered surveyor to produce a lease extension valuation now. This gives a concrete figure under current law, protects against the consequences of crossing the 80-year threshold, and provides a solid reference point for comparing any future reformed premium once prescribed rates are finally confirmed.
LANGUAGE: en