A one-point gap between tracker and fixed mortgage rates is not small change. On a typical loan, it is the difference between a manageable monthly payment and one that makes a homeowner wince every direct debit day. After this week's Bank Rate rise the gap narrows slightly but remains wide, and anyone choosing between a fix and a tracker has a harder sum to do.
On Thursday 5 November 2026, the Bank of England raised Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4%, voting 8-1 (the dissenter wanted a bigger jump, to 4.25%). It is the first rise since August 2023. For owners in Notting Hill and Kensington sitting on a fixed deal that is about to end, or buyers about to exchange on a period house, the question of whether to fix or track is suddenly live again.
This article sets out the trade-offs plainly. It does not tell readers which to choose. That decision depends on personal circumstances, and an independent mortgage broker is the right person to work through it with any borrower.
Key Takeaways
- Bank Rate rose to 4% on 5 November 2026; the average two-year tracker (4.68%) remains roughly a point below the average two-year fix (5.97%).
- Governor Andrew Bailey said the rise "shouldn't be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes," though economists expect another 0.25-point move by February 2027.
- A 0.25-point rise adds about £37 a month to a £250,000 tracker over 25 years; fixed rates have already added almost £170 a month to Moneyfacts' example since January 2026.
- UK Finance figures show about 2.3 million fixed-rate mortgages expire by the end of 2027, so this decision will recur for many Notting Hill households soon.
- Property valuations matter as much as the rate chosen: loan-to-value banding, a softer prime London market and lease length can all affect the deal a lender offers.
Fix or Track: The Rate Gap Explained
Moneyfacts data from the start of November, before this week's rise, put the average two-year tracker at 4.68% against an average two-year fix of 5.97% and an average five-year fix of 6.00%. Its overall Average New Mortgage rate stood at 5.89%, a three-year high. Both fixed averages had climbed from 5.59% and 5.63% respectively at the start of September.
A tracker follows Bank Rate directly, so tracker pay rates are expected to move up by the 0.25-point rise. Even after that adjustment, the average tracker would remain roughly a percentage point below the average two-year fix. That gap is the headline fact behind the fix-or-track decision.
The numbers behind the headline rate are worth sitting with. Moneyfacts estimates the 0.25-point rise adds about £37 a month to a £250,000 tracker mortgage on a 25-year term. By contrast, the average two-year fixed rate has risen by more than a point since January 2026, adding almost £170 a month, or over £2,000 a year, on the same example. Separately, some of the lowest two-year fixed rates from Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest and Santander were about 0.44 points higher at the start of this week than at the start of September.
Rachel Springall, Finance Expert at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said: "Lenders look at their margins very carefully, so it would be unwise to price deals too low when uncertainty remains". Oliver Dack, spokesperson at Mortgage Advice Bureau, put the decision in personal terms: "Ultimately, the best option will depend on a borrower's unique circumstances".
Certainty Versus Exposure: The Trade-off in Plain Terms
A fixed-rate deal sets the payment for the deal's term, whatever the Bank does next. A tracker payment moves with Bank Rate, up or down, and the next decision falls on 17 December 2026. Economists quoted by Moneyfacts and MoneyWeek expect a further 0.25-point rise by February 2027, though Governor Bailey's comment that this rise "shouldn't be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes" cuts against assuming a long run of increases is certain.
Early repayment charges apply differently across products, and trackers sometimes carry fewer or shorter tie-ins than fixes. That detail varies by lender and product, which is exactly the kind of point an independent broker should check against the whole of market, rather than a single lender's range.
With about 2.3 million fixed-rate mortgages due to expire by the end of 2027 according to UK Finance, a large number of households will face this same choice over the coming year, not just those remortgaging this month.
Valuations, Loan-to-Value and Surveys for Notting Hill and Kensington Property
The rate a lender actually offers depends heavily on the loan-to-value band the valuation puts a property into. A property valued lower than expected can push a borrower into a higher loan-to-value bracket, which typically means a worse rate regardless of whether fixing or tracking. This makes the lender's valuation, not just the headline mortgage rate, central to the fix-or-track decision for many local owners.
Prime London pricing has been mixed. Knight Frank reported that prime central London prices rose 0.3% in the three months to September 2026, the first quarterly rise in four years, though prices were still 2% lower than a year earlier and 22% below their August 2015 peak. Meanwhile the Lloyds House Price Index, published on 6 November 2026, showed Greater London prices 3.1% lower in October 2026 than a year earlier, the steepest fall of any UK region. A softer or uneven market of this kind can mean a lender's automated or desk-based valuation lands below an owner's expectation, which matters when a remortgage sits near a loan-to-value threshold.
When an Independent RICS Red Book Valuation Helps
A RICS Red Book valuation, carried out independently of the lender, gives a reasoned, evidenced opinion of value that a borrower can put forward if a lender's figure seems out of step with the local market. This is particularly relevant where:
- A mortgage valuation has come in lower than expected and the borrower wants a second, independent opinion to challenge it.
- A private bank requires its own valuation for lending against a high-value Kensington or Notting Hill property.
- A valuation is needed for matrimonial proceedings or probate, separate from any mortgage transaction.
A Red Book valuation does not guarantee a lender will revise its figure, but it gives the borrower a properly reasoned basis to raise the point.
Why a RICS Home Survey Level 3 Still Matters for Period Property
Notting Hill's stucco-fronted houses and converted flats carry risks that a mortgage valuation, which exists purely to support the lender's lending decision, does not investigate. A RICS Home Survey Level 3 looks at structural condition, roof coverings, damp, movement in solid or party walls, and the condition of period features in far more depth. For a converted flat, the lease terms, length and service charge arrangements deserve equal attention, since these affect both saleability and, in some cases, mortgageability. None of this changes because Bank Rate has moved; it remains good practice for any buyer regardless of whether they end up fixing or tracking.
Average Mortgage Rates at the Start of November 2026
| Product | Rate (start of November 2026) | Rate (start of September 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Average 2-year tracker | 4.68% | not stated |
| Average 2-year fixed | 5.97% | 5.59% |
| Average 5-year fixed | 6.00% | 5.63% |
| Moneyfacts Average New Mortgage rate | 5.89% (3-year high) | not stated |
Figures from Moneyfacts, as reported in early November 2026, before the 5 November Bank Rate decision.
FAQ
Will my tracker mortgage definitely go up after this rise?
A tracker follows Bank Rate, so a pay rate rise is expected to follow the 0.25-point increase. The exact effect depends on the specific product and its margin above Bank Rate.
Is a fixed rate safer than a tracker right now?
A fix gives certainty over the payment for its term. A tracker currently sits roughly a point below the average two-year fix, but carries exposure to further Bank Rate moves. Neither is universally "safer"; it depends on a borrower's finances and risk tolerance, which a broker can assess.
When is the next Bank of England decision?
The next scheduled decision is on 17 December 2026.
Does a lower mortgage valuation mean I have to accept a worse rate?
Not necessarily. A lower lender valuation can push a loan into a higher loan-to-value band, affecting the rate offered, but an independent RICS Red Book valuation can give grounds to query that figure.
Do I still need a survey if prime London prices are falling?
Yes. A RICS Home Survey Level 3 checks structural and condition issues that a mortgage valuation does not cover, regardless of which way local prices are moving.
Should I speak to a mortgage broker before deciding?
Yes. Oliver Dack of Mortgage Advice Bureau noted that "the best option will depend on a borrower's unique circumstances," and an independent broker can compare products across the whole market.
Conclusion
The gap between tracker and fixed mortgage rates has not closed with this week's rise; it remains close to a full percentage point. For anyone weighing up the fix-or-track decision, the sensible next steps are to get an up-to-date figure from an independent mortgage broker on both options, check where the property's likely valuation sits relative to loan-to-value thresholds, and commission a RICS Home Survey Level 3 and, where relevant, an independent valuation before committing. Notting Hill Surveyors provides RICS surveys and valuations across Notting Hill, Kensington and west London, and can be instructed to support a purchase, remortgage or valuation query alongside independent mortgage advice.